NFL Betting – Should I Buy NFL betting Picks?

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As the NFL betting season approaches, you’re probably getting planning your bets for Week 1 of the regular season. In fact, you might be even pondering some plays for the NFL pre-season. If you’ve been betting online for a while, and visited various sports betting sites, it’s likely you’ve seen ads for NFL betting handicapping services, or maybe you’ve even been sent junk email from various handicappers. After the hype and promises, are sports handicappers worth the extra investment at the end of day? First of all, before we get down to the nitty-gritty of NFL betting vis a vi a handicapper’s pick, let’s clear the air about handicappers in general. In its most basic form, sports handicapping is all about sales. Handicapping is a career, and many of the top cappers have been working for years honing their skill and game analysis strategies. There are, however, a few bad apples in the bunch that don’t actually care about sports at all: they simply hound a customer to buy their picks until the customer hangs up the phone or no longer has money to bet. With the advent of the internet, the sports handicapping industry began to take advantage of email as a tool to reach customers, which is why you may have a few random spam emails in your box from cappers you don’t know, and whom you never solicited for services. Many people are skeptical of the notion that someone can correctly predict a game result, and this is actually a reasonable doubt to have. After all the sales routines and sensational hype, even the best NFL betting cappers never do better than predicting 60% of their games correctly. This figure doesn’t include cappers who offer parlay or other exotic bet advice, in which case the average is no better than flipping a coin, due mostly to fact that the odds of hitting a parlay are longer than a simple win/loss prediction. In some ways, even flipping a coin for straight win/loss bets would be no better than the above average capper. As a result, there are only a precious handful of cappers that might actually be profitable over the course of a NFL betting season. So, should you even consider wasting your time and money on buying sports picks? The answer is “Yes…BUT…”. What follows the “but”? Keep reading, our analysis shows how the math works out, for better or for worse. For the purposes of this mathematical illustration, we’ll assume the following numbers: You, the bettor, will be betting on 10 NFL betting matchups, $100 per game, and will be making your betting decisions based on the advice of your sports handicapper, who offers his picks for $20 per game. Also, we’re going to assume that if the handicapper picks the underdog correctly in some cases, or the favorite correctly in some cases, you’ll average a 1:1 payoff from a correct prediction at $100 bet per game. The $20 pick fee is constant for every game. Here’s a few scenarios and how the math works out: Case 1: Handicapper Averages out to be 60% correct for his picks 6 games correct x $100 bet per game = $1200 gross win $1200 gross win – $600 initial money invested = $600 adjusted win 6 games x $20 per pick = $120 $600 adjusted win – 6 correct picks at $120 = $480 net win. 4 games incorrect x $100 bet per game = -$400 gross losses 4 games incorrect x $20 per pick = $80 -$400 in losses – 4 incorrect picks at $80 = -$480 net losses. Grand Total: $480 net win + -$480 net losses = $ 0. You break even. Case 2: Handicapper Averages out to be 50% correct for his picks 5 games correct x $100 bet per game = $1000 gross win $1000 gross win – $500 initial money invested = $500 adjusted win 5 games x $20 per pick = $100 $500 adjusted win – 5 correct picks at $100 = $400 net win. 5 games incorrect x $100 bet per game = -$500 gross losses 5 games incorrect x $20 per pick = $100 -$500 in losses – 5 incorrect picks at $100 = -$600 net losses. Grand Total: $400 net win + -$600 net losses = -$200. You lose money. Case 3: You flip a fair coin and average 50% correct WITHOUT Capper 5 games correct x $100 bet per game = $1000 gross win $1000 gross win – $500 initial money invested = $500 adjusted win $500 adjusted win – $0 in picks = $500 net win. 5 games incorrect x $100 bet per game = -$500 gross losses -$500 in losses – $0 in picks = -$500 net losses. Grand Total: $500 net win + -$500 net losses = $0. You break even. Case 4: You flip a fair coin and average 60% correct WITHOUT Capper 6 games correct x $100 bet per game = $1200 gross win $1200 gross win – $600 initial money invested = $600 adjusted win $600 adjusted win – $0 in picks = $600 net win. 4 games incorrect x $100 bet per game = -$400 gross losses -$400 in losses – $0 in picks = -$400 net losses. Grand Total: $600 net win + -$400 net losses = $200. You make $200 profit. Therefore, flipping a coin (or guessing on your own) and being 60% correct equals $200 in profits, which is a 20% return on $1000 invested over the course of 10 matchups. If you went with the capper who was right 60% of the time at a cost of $20 per pick, you would break even, $0 in profits. Now, there’s an obvious variable here than can affect your profits/losses and change the math: simply increase the size of your bet to offset the handicapper’s fees. This is absolutely correct: if you bet $1000 per game vs. $100 per game, the $20 pick doesn’t eat away at your profits or losses as much as a $100 bet per game. The reason we picked $100 is because the average recreational bettor doesn’t have more than $1000 to risk over the course of 10 games. Therefore, if you like to bet big, a $20 handicapper’s pick will go a lot further. So that’s the outlook on NFL betting picks and predictions. This is not a scientific analysis and there are some other variables that come into play. Our simple analysis is just a betting situation with 4 different scenarios. When it comes to cappers, do your homework. Have a look at the following sites, which offer expert advice and free picks. These are the guys that know what they’re doing: UltimateCapper.com Free Sports Picks – Click Here NationalSportsMonitor.com – Handicapping Monitor that keeps track of major Cappers – Click Here Doc’s Sport Service – DocSports has been in business for years and is well respected – Click Here Big Al McMordie – A multiple time champion handicapper – Click Here Dennis Macklin – World Class Handicapper with a long standing solid reputation – Click Here